People everywhere sense the world is passing through a profound transformation, but they lack a convenient, reliable source of information to guide their understanding and to help them make decisions. The are many “Forecast” ressources on the web that can help out :
LIPSOR , 3IE and EPITA : Two labs and a universty provide free prospective software tools :
The George Washington University Forecast
(the site seems to be offline, but i have a backup here of the main forecast listing).
This system has been developed over the past ten years by Professor William E. Halal and his associates at The George Washington University. Results have been published in scientific journals, widely reported in the media, and attracted attention from corporations and governments around the globe. Earlier versions of the GW Forecast were conducted by mail, but is has been online since 1998. The Forecast presently focuses on emerging technologies, the driving force behind today’s change.
RESEARCH METHOD : The GW team keeps abreast of technological advances and management strategies by constantly scanning the literature and media, interviewing authorities, and drawing on other sources to identify emerging trends. These trends are then analyzed to select those that are most significant. Finally, a Delphi survey is used to solicit estimates from a panel of experts describing how these trends should develop. As of 1999, this panel consisted of approximately 65 research scientists, academic scholars, and consultants located around the world. The estimates are automatically aggregated using algorithms to calculate various forecasts of interest, the most likely year in which the breakthrough will occur, its associated confidence level, the potential economic demand, and so on. Individual forecasts can also be combined to produce a variety of vivid scenarios. We find this methodology to be very powerful. It can be used to forecast any issue in any field, the results are replicable within +/- 3 years on average, and the process itself enhances understanding.
Publishes a Quarterly Review of Science & Technology Trends
European Foundation for the Improvement of Living and Working Conditions
Different documents and surveys.
Foresight handbook : http://www.eurofound.ie
Ministry of Research, Science & Technology (MoRST), New Zealand
140 page document on Biotechnologies from now to 2025
Irish Council for Science, Technology & Innovation
Foresight Institute : ” goal is to guide emerging technologies to improve the human condition. Foresight focuses its efforts upon nanotechnology, the coming ability to build productsÃ¢â‚¬â€of any sizeÃ¢â‚¬â€with atomic precision”…